Monday, February 13, 2012

The Good News Or The Bad News?

The Telegraph:

It is the front line of Israel’s deepening conflict with Iran, and beneath the snow-capped peaks of Mount Hermon the final preparations are taking shape for a conflict that promises to change the landscape of the modern Middle East.
On one side, amid the foothills of southern Lebanon, is Hizbollah, the Iranian-backed Shia militia that is busily stockpiling thousands of missiles in readiness for the next round of hostilities against its sworn enemy, Israel.
On the other side stand the men and women of Israel’s armed forces, the defenders of the Jewish state who are working on their own plans to defeat the Tehran-controlled militia that is committed to Israel’s destruction.
The last time these two combatants clashed was in the summer of 2006, when Israel launched a full-scale onslaught against Hizbollah after it kidnapped two Israeli soldiers while they were patrolling the south Lebanon border. The Second Lebanon War, as it is known in Israel, lasted for 33 days and resulted in the deaths of an estimated 1,200 people. But it ended inconclusively with Hizbollah largely intact and Ehud Olmert, the hawkish Israeli prime minister who ordered the offensive, hounded from office over his handling of the conflict.
Today, though, there is a steely determination within Israel’s high command to finish the job once and for all and eradicate the threat Hizbollah poses to Israel’s security – as I discovered this week when I visited the Israeli-Lebanese border.
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At Bravo 30, the Israeli defensive position where Hizbollah staged its audacious ambush back in 2006, I found pieces of twisted metal marking the spot where a jeep was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired by Hizbollah militants concealed on a nearby hill. Not far from where I stood, the black flag of Hizbollah was clearly visible on the roof of a house in a Shia village on the other side of the border. At points, the distance between these indomitable foes is so close that from an Israeli army position it is possible to hear Hizbollah fighters calling to each other.
For the moment, an uneasy truce is observed under the watchful presence of the 13,000-strong UN force that was deployed to southern Lebanon to keep the peace after the 2006 conflict. But the calm would immediately be shattered if, as seems increasingly likely, Israel becomes involved in a military confrontation with Iran over its nuclear programme.
All week, senior Israeli military and intelligence officials attending the annual Herziliya Conference on global security in Tel Aviv have been fending off questions from foreign journalists trying to discover whether Israel is about to launch unilateral air strikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The most convincing answer I heard – from a senior officer serving with the Israeli Defence Force – was that, while all the preparations for an Israeli strike have been completed, the final decision on whether to attack has yet to be taken by Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and Ehud Barak, the defence minister.
Their decision rests predominantly on how Iran responds to the latest round of sanctions imposed by the US and the EU. If Iran agrees to freeze its nuclear programme, military action may be averted. But no one in Israel is prepared to allow Iran to continue building an atom bomb. Unless Iran comes to its senses, the consensus at Herziliya is that Israel will attack before the year is out. At that point, all hell will break loose along the northern border, as Iran retaliates by ordering Hizbollah to bombard Israeli towns and cities.
During the 2006 conflict, Hizbollah had about 10,000 Iranian-made rockets, most of them short-range missiles that threatened only residential areas in northern Israel. But it is estimated that Hizbollah now has more than 40,000 missiles, many with a range of up to 200 miles – enough for an attack on Tel Aviv.
In addition, the Israelis have seen a marked change in Hizbollah’s tactics. “In the past, Hizbollah fighters always wore uniforms, so they were easy to identify,” an infantry officer told me. “But now they dress as civilians so it is far harder for us to tell them apart. The next war will be an urban war.”
While Hizbollah’s primary objective will be to inflict as much damage as possible on Israel’s main population centres, the Israelis make no secret of their desire to eradicate Hizbollah’s military infrastructure, something they failed to do in 2006. During the last conflict, Israel was forced to agree to a ceasefire because of the international outcry over its air raids against Lebanese targets, such as Beirut airport. Next time, though, the Israelis are determined not to end the conflict until Hizbollah is completely destroyed as a fighting force.
“This time, the war is going to last for as long as it takes to destroy Hizbollah,” said an Israeli officer. “We will not make the same mistake of allowing them to escape.”
The only problem with this uncompromising approach, however, is the impact it will have on the rest of the region. The new Islamic government in Egypt is unlikely to stay on the sidelines while Israel tries to pummel Muslims into submission. Nor will the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Hizbollah, stand idly by as it did in 2006. Going to war with Israel is certainly one way for Assad to end anti-government protests in that it would rally the country behind him.
Consequently, a conflict that began as a border skirmish between Israel and Hizbollah could become an all-out war between Tel Aviv and its Arab neighbours, with all the catastrophic implications that would have for both the region’s Jews and Arabs.

There are opinions that the Final War may take 3 minutes...It will be the longest 3 minutes in the history of the World.
The World is becoming more and more complex every day, and time is getting condensed. The only answer and way out is through Novelty.

(An example of Novelty and Complexity is the internet; through complex foundations, Novelty bursts through [innovations based on complexity])

An all out Middle eastern riot with Israeli weaponry of mass destruction will be a crash course to Novelty: WWII 2.0 = WWIII!

( much like the '50's that followed the Shoa, the World was complex in evil, and a new way of life and modernity was born...only this time it will be an eternal lesson learned; the Chafetz Chaim said WW2 was the beginning of what we are seeing today [70 yrs. predicted of Gog V' Magog])

...And the World became eternally Novel (at rest and at peace) in the fulfillment of the Zohar's prediction of '72?

And we have seen only a fraction of complexity in 5772...


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